UFC Vegas 79 Gambling Preview: Will Rafael Fiziev or Mateusz Gamrot get in title contention?
After 16 weeks of nonstop action, the UFC’s midyear marathon finally comes to an end on Saturday as the promotion returns to the APEX for a lightweight main event between Rafael Fiziev and Mateusz Gamrot. Buoyed by a co-main event between Bryce Mitchell and Dan Ige, the rest of UFC Vegas 79 features nine other fights of varying importance, so let’s jump right into the best bets this week.
As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Michelle Waterson-Gomez, +250
OK, now the savvy among you might look at this and think, “Wait a minute, didn’t Waterson-Gomez fight Marina Rodriguez two years ago in a main event, and didn’t she nearly get swept on the scorecards?” Yes. Yes she did. But here’s the thing, that was two years ago!
Things change quickly in MMA, and over the past 12 months, Rodriguez has looked terrible. On top of that, their first fight was at 125 pounds – and a five-rounder. This one is at 115 and only three rounds, and Waterson-Gomez comes into it knowing her best path to victory. All she needs is two takedowns to pull of the upset, and given Rodriguez’s current form, I think she’s live to pull it off.
Ricardo Ramos, +114
Like many of the fights on this card, this one comes down to whether or not Ramos can consistently get the fight to the floor. Everyone who has taken Charles Jourdain down multiple times has beaten him, and every time Ramos has scored a takedown in a fight, he’s won. The math is pretty simple here. Fortunately for the Brazilian, he should be able to get the fight down, as Jourdain is not an especially strong defensive wrestler. Ramos should find plenty of success on Saturday.
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Rafael Fiziev To Win By Decision, +250
The main event this weekend is a certified banger, but it’s one that seems to favor Fiziev. Gamrot is an exceptional chain-wrestler and grappler, but he struggles to hold onto dominant positions and largely makes hay through his relentless pace. Fiziev has shown incredible takedown defense in his career and good get-up on the few occasions he is taken down.
More importantly, Fiziev’s cardio is very good, meaning he should withstand the torrid pace Gamrot puts up. With his advantages on the feet and his willingness to work the body, I think Fiziev will take control of this fight early. He’ll stay just ahead of Gamrot but be unable to find the finish, given that no one has been able to stop Gamrot yet.
Bryce Mitchell To Win By Decision, -115
Mitchell is one of the most dynamic grapplers in the featherweight division, and in Dan Ige, he gets an opponent who is well-rounded but a little deficient as a wrestler. Ige is certainly the cleaner striker, but we’ve seen Mitchell takes leaps in this category, as well, with his willingness to throw earning him enough respect on the feet. His clear advantage on the mat should see him get his hand raised.
Like with the main event, though, Ige has never been finished, and I don’t expect Mitchell to be the first to do that.
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Parlay of the Week
Johnny Eblen, -535
We’re reaching across the aisle to Bellator for one piece of the parlay this week, as arguably the best middleweight on Earth defends his title against Fabian Edwards on Saturday, as well. Eblen is the classic wrestle-boxer, but he’s so good overall that he honestly could be the top 185-pounder in the world right now. Edwards is a fine fighter, but he doesn’t offer enough in any area to be too concerning as a threat.
Rafael Fiziev/Mateusz Gamrot Over 1.5 Rounds, -525
Fiziev has hit this over in six of his previous 10 bouts. Gamrot has hit this over in eight of his previous 10 bouts. In 39 combined fights, these two have been finished once. This fight should go long.
Bryce Mitchell/Dan Ige Over 1.5 Rounds, -450
Mitchell has hit this over in 8 of his previous 10 bouts. Ige has done it in 9 of his previous 10. In 39 combined fights, these two have been finished once. Sensing a theme here?
Marina Rodriguez/Michelle Waterson Over 1.5 Rounds, -750
Rodriguez has hit this over in nine of her previous 10 fights. Waterson-Gomez has also done it in nine of her previous 10. Just two years ago, these two women went 25 minutes without the fight really coming close to a finish.
Parlay these four bets together for -105 odds.
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Long Shot of the Week
Tim Means By KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2, +1400
In a battle of two men on three-fight skids, the best bet is perhaps to simply pass on the fight. But that’s not what we’re here for. Means is pushing 40 and has been finished in two of his previous three losses, but his chin has held up surprisingly well, and Andre Fialho is a chaos merchant who doesn’t try for submissions. Fialho is going to make this firing zone, because that’s his way. Means has a reasonable chance of hanging tough and then catching the somewhat chinny Portuguese fighter.
Big week for us last time out! Had Alexa Grasso correctly been scored as the winner in the main event, it would’ve been huge. But still, a solid winning week, which you love to see. Let’s try to keep it rolling this time out.
Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!
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